India's economy is likely to grow by 6.5 per cent in the current and the next financial year, an EY report said, attributing lower than anticipated expansion in the September quarter to fall in private consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation. Real GDP growth eased to a seven-quarter low of 5.4 per cent in July-September -- the second quarter of the current 2024-25 fiscal year.
A year after a Hamas attack against Israel on October 7 and the ensuing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, India's trade with most West Asian countries has largely escaped any major disruption, except with countries like Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan. However, repeated flare-ups of geopolitical tensions in the region continue to drive up shipping and logistics costs.
The government's initiative to migrate SEZ data from NSDL software to ICEGATE system for streamlined reporting of import data caused double counting of gold imports, resulting in inflated figures and the issue has now been largely rectified, government sources said. The downward revision has provided the actual picture of trade deficit (difference between imports and exports), which was earlier looking very high. The deficit for November will now be revised downwards from $37.84 billion to about $32.8 billion. Similarly, there will be a revision in overall import numbers as well.
The Indian economy is estimated to grow at 7 per cent in the 2022-23 fiscal, down from 8.7 per cent a year ago, mainly due poor performance of mining and manufacturing sectors. As per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday, the manufacturing sector output is estimated to decelerate to 1.6 per cent in the current fiscal from 9.9 per cent in 2021-22. Similarly, mining sector growth is estimated at 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal as against 11.5 per cent in 2021-22.
India's economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in 2024-25, mainly on account of poor showing by the manufacturing and services sector, according to government data released on Tuesday. The gross domestic product (GDP) rate of 6.4 per cent will be the lowest since the Covid year (2020-21) when the country witnessed a negative growth of 5.8 per cent.
India's trade ties with Israel have only strengthened in the years after 2019. The total value of trade rose to $10.5 billion on a rolling four-quarter basis in June 2023 from $5.5 billion in the same month in 2019, shows a Business Standard analysis of data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). A rolling four-quarter number provides a comparable figure across different time periods.
The "weaponisation" of economic activity - through tariffs and sanctions - is now a reality, with countries leveraging these tools strategically, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said at the Raisina Dialogue recently.
US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear facilities have once again raised concerns that Tehran might shut down the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most critical chokepoints, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supply flows.
'Only those who live through these situations understand the true cost of war.'
On India, the chart showed that the country charged 52 per cent tariffs on the US "including currency manipulation and trade barriers," and America will now charge India "discounted reciprocal tariffs" of 26 per cent.
Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.
The government has revised gold import data, bringing down numbers for November by $5 billion to $9.84 billion, possibly to rectify double accounting of inbound shipments. According to revised data of the commerce ministry arm Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), gold import numbers have been slashed since April 2024, revealing excess imports of about $11.7 billion during the first eight months of 2024-25.
"These latest so-called 'Liberation Day' tariffs are reckless and self-destructive, inflicting financial pain on Illinois at a time when people are already struggling to keep their small businesses afloat and put food on the table."
Trump has made it clear to Prime Minister Modi that India will not be spared from Washington's reciprocal tariffs and emphasised that "nobody can argue with me" on tariff structure.
'Balancing tunnel developments with ecological realities is a major challenge and, when overlooked, can contribute to mishaps.'
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Friday said it has advanced the release of macroeconomic data Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates by about 90 mins to 4 pm. As per the current practice, the press releases of GDP are scheduled at 5.30 pm on the specified release dates, a MoSPI statement said.
The central government's Great Nicobar development project, proposed around an unprecedented transhipment port, will be executed to keep environmental impact minimal, and is essential as it is of national importance, the government has said amid calls to abort the controversial project due to ecological concerns, the Centre said in an official statement.
For India to transform into a high-income country with a projected gross domestic product (GDP) of $23-35 trillion, will need a sustained annual growth of 8 per cent to 10 per cent. This will be powered by India's demographic dividend, technological innovation, and sectoral transformation, according to the "India@2047: Transforming India Into A Tech-Driven Economy" report by Bain & Company and Nasscom. By 2047, the services sector is expected to contribute 60 per cent of India's GDP, while manufacturing will account for 32 per cent, both playing a pivotal role in economic expansion.
Indian drugmakers supply 47 per cent of the generic medicine requirements in the US, and tariffs would have increased prices in the US domestic market for patients, who are already dealing with drug shortages.
The World Bank on Tuesday raised the growth forecast for the Indian economy to 7 per cent for the current fiscal year on the back of recovery in agri sector and rural demand. World Bank had in June projected India to grow at 6.6 per cent for FY24. According to the World Bank Report released on Tuesday, India's growth continues to be strong despite a challenging global environment.
The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
After declining to a three-year low in FY24, the private sector investment is expected to fall further in the current financial year, India Ratings said in a research note.. The investments in the private sector are likely to plummet to below 11 per cent of the GDP in FY25, based on the trends from the latest national accounts data and company fillings, it noted.
The 16th Brics Summit beginning Tuesday in Kazan, Russia, is expected to see more focus on creating a sharper energy policy for Brics that ensures closer partnership among members in both energy security and energy transition, official sources said. The same is expected to be a part of the Kazan declaration, currently being negotiated, they added.
Recent documents by NITI Aayog and periodic labour force surveys on employment show that the importance of agriculture is rising in the Indian economy.
Apple's ambitious strategy to expand iPhone exports, shift more production from China to India at a faster pace, and grow its domestic market hits a Trump-sized roadblock.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to a nearly six-year low of 3.34 per cent in March due to a decline in prices of vegetables and protein-rich items. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.61 per cent in February and 4.85 per cent in March last year.
The hope that the ongoing 13th round of negotiations towards an India-UK free trade agreement (FTA) could conclude with a deal for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to sign off in time for the India versus England World Cup cricket clash in Lucknow on October 29 seem to be fading, according to a UK media report on Wednesday. The Financial Times quoted officials briefed on the negotiations to say that a lack of movement towards opening up of the Indian market to British professional services in the field of law and accountancy is among the factors for the slowdown. So much so that cricket fan Sunak's proposed return visit to India after an inaugural visit as UK Prime Minister to New Delhi for the G20 Summit last month is looking "very, very unlikely to happen".
The Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) six-step plan to curb retail participation in speculative index derivatives may lead to a substantial drop in volumes - potentially by 30-40 per cent. These measures aim to reduce excessive speculation in the futures and options (F&O) segment, where daily turnover often exceeds Rs 500 trillion and retail investors end up on the losing side of the trade more often. Sebi has decided to increase the contract size from Rs 5 lakh to Rs 15 lakh, raising margin requirements and mandating the upfront collection of option premiums from buyers.
With Donald Trump all set to become US president, Indian exporters may face high customs duties for goods like automobiles, textiles and pharmaceuticals if the new US administration decides to pursue the 'America First' agenda, opined trade experts. Experts also said that Trump could also tighten H-1B visa rules, impacting costs and growth for Indian IT firms. Over 80 per cent of India's IT export earnings come from the US, making it vulnerable to changes in visa policies.
The trade impact of the coronavirus epidemic for India is estimated to be about 348 million dollars (approximately Rs 25 billion) and the country figures among the top 15 economies most affected as slowdown of manufacturing in China disrupts world trade, according to a UN report. Estimates published by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development on Wednesday said that the slowdown of manufacturing in China due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is disrupting world trade and could result in a 50 billion dollar decrease in exports across global value chains.
Exports declined for the fourth-consecutive month by 10.3 per cent year-on-year to $34.98 billion in May, while the trade deficit widened to a five-month high of $22.12 billion. According to the data released by the commerce ministry on Thursday, key export sectors recording negative growth include petroleum products, gems and jewellery, engineering goods, ready-made garments of all textiles and chemicals. Imports also declined 6.6 per cent, six-month in a row, to $57.1 billion against $61.13 billion in the same month last year, the data showed.
The price hikes during Covid were more because of supply chain and logistics disruptions caused by the pandemic and the Ukraine war rather than firms increasing prices because of higher pricing power, a report by State Bank of India (SBI) said. "It is thus incorrect to infer that concentration power dictated pricing capacity of firms, thus resulting in unyielding core inflation," the report authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser, SBI, said. A recent research article by former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Viral Acharya had observed that persistence of core inflation in India is due to purchasing power of top-five corporate houses.
The United Kingdom extracted USD 64.82 trillion from India over a century of colonialism between 1765 and 1900 and USD 33.8 trillion of this went to the richest 10 per cent -- enough money to carpet London in notes of 50 British pound almost four times over.
India's export of fuels like diesel to the European Union jumped 58 per cent in the first three quarters of 2024, with a bulk of them likely coming from refining discounted Russian oil, according to a monthly tracker report. The EU/G7 countries in December 2022 introduced a price cap and an embargo on the imports of Russian crude oil in a bid to cripple Kremlin's revenue and create a vacuum in its funding for the invasion of Ukraine.
As the Diwali festivities kick off, Dhanteras emerges as a pivotal day for traders nationwide, with an estimated trade volume of Rs 50 thousand crore, predicts the national president of the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), BC Bhartia, and secretary general Praveen Khandelwal. In his post on X, Praveen Khandelwal called on the people to patronise various women entrepreneurs. "Full support of 9 crore businessmen @CAITIndia of the country in the call of Prime Minister Shri @narendramodi ji this Diwali #VocalForLocal and the appeal #NaariSeKharidaari of Union Minister Smt. @smritiirani ji. We are providing the country's market to all the women entrepreneurs, from small diyas to those running boutiques. You too should shop from women and visit their homes too" Khandelwal said.
India's merchandise exports in October rose by 17.25 per cent to $39.2 billion against $33.43 billion a year ago, according to government data released on Thursday. Imports increased by 3.9 per cent to $66.34 billion in October compared to $63.86 billion in the year-ago period.
Given the high priority accorded to the manufacturing sector, several policy initiatives around the theme of Atmanirbhar Bharat have been set in motion to address its competitiveness and growth. Some notable examples include the PLI scheme and the employment-linked incentive scheme announced in the recent Union Budget. The Budget also announced the setting up of 12 industrial parks under the National Industrial Corridor Development Programme (NICDP).
In the shadows of a sliding rupee, India's knitwear hub Tiruppur is weaving a success story. While the domestic currency edges closer to the 86 mark against the US dollar, triggering concerns for many sectors, this textile town in Tamil Nadu is finding opportunity in adversity: Between April and December alone, Tiruppur's exports reached Rs 26,000 crore, almost eclipsing last financial year's total of Rs 30,690 crore.
Will allowing business correspondents to hawk insurance products help in reviving 5-lakh strong field agents as a viable channel?
Live on one of Gelephu's inhabitable bridges where elephants will saunter past, be it day or night; or be homed in a never-ending building with flying cars and robot maids? asks ambivalent Sandeep Goyal.
